Cynefin §

Framework to aid in#strategy and decision-making. Wikipedia

Pronounced “keNEVin” - Welsh, “habitat / familiar”

• Complex: enabling constraints, loosely coupled. Probe-sense-respond. Emergent practice
• Complicated (knowable): Governing constraints, tightly coupled. Sense-analyse-respond. Good practice
• Chaotic: Lacking constraint, decoupled. Act-sense-respond. Novel practice
• Clear (obvious/simple/known): Tightly constrained, no degrees of freedom. Sense-categorise-respond. Best practice

Characteristics §

• Ordered: clear and complicated. Cause and effect are known or knowable.
• Unordered: complex and chaotic. Cause and effect unknowable or only deducible in hindsight.

Clear §

• known knowns
• sense (establish facts), categorise, respond
• complacency risks a shift into chaotic

Here, decision-making lies squarely in the realm of reason: Find the proper rule and apply it.

Complicated §

• known unknowns
• range of right answers
• requires analysis or expertise
• sense, analyse, respond

Complex §

• unknown unknowns
• probe, sense, respond
  • can’t even establish the facts (sense) until you probe to get signals
• “your very actions change the situation in unpredictable ways”

instructive patterns … can emerge if the leader conducts experiments that are safe to fail

Chaotic §

• “too confusing to wait for a knowledge-based response”
• act, sense, respond
  • “Action - any action - is the first and only way to respond appropriately”
  • act to establish order
  • sense where stability lies
  • respond to turn the chaotic into the complex

a leader’s immediate job is not to discover patterns but to staunch the bleeding … communication of the most direct top-down or broadcast kind is imperative; there’s simply no time to ask for input.

Disorder / confusion §

• no clarity which other domain applies
• “multiple perspectives”
• “break down the situation into constituent parts and assign each to one of the other four realms”

Movement tendencies §

• “clockwise drift” as knowledge increases
• “Buildup of biases” / complacency / entropy can cause “catastrophic failure” from simple to chaotic
• converses to both can occur (knowledge rot, sudden imposition of rules)